Flu Activity Rises Early as Health Officials Urge Eligible Patients to Get Vaccinated

Health officials have warned of possible signs of an early flu season after surveillance found influenza activity rising during September and the start of October. The UK Health Security Agency says the level of flu circulating in England remains low, but recent trends are higher than at the equivalent point in the previous four winter seasons.

In the surveillance period covering 28 September to 4 October, influenza test positivity reached 6.5%, compared with 5% in the previous week. UKHSA also recorded a flu hospitalisation rate of 1.97 per 100,000 people. The agency says COVID-19 activity increased but remained at low levels, while respiratory syncytial virus activity remained low.

What an early rise means

An increase early in the season is a warning sign rather than proof of a severe winter. Virus trends can change as more surveillance data becomes available, and the eventual impact will depend on how widely infection spreads and which groups are affected.

Why the NHS is watching

Seasonal respiratory illness can increase demand for GP appointments, urgent treatment, ambulance services and hospital beds. Pressure can be especially challenging when health services are already managing routine treatment backlogs and busy emergency departments.

Vaccination message

UKHSA is encouraging people who qualify for seasonal vaccines to take up the offer. Eligibility varies by programme, age and medical circumstances; patients should check current NHS guidance rather than assuming everyone is covered by the same arrangements.

The coming weekly surveillance bulletins will help show whether the rise continues. Keep Updated UK will report the changes using dated surveillance periods and will not present low-level activity as a confirmed winter emergency.